TerrapinSportsReport - The B1G Picture: This season will be a disaster if... (2024)

The unpredictable ups and downs of the COVID-plagued 2020 season made last year something of a disaster for a number of Big Ten football programs in one way or another, but with the train back on track in 2021, every team will strive to put its best foot forward.

Unfortunately for several schools, the parity in the conference simply does not allow for each team to avoid relative catastrophe.

As we continue our ongoing B1G Picture series, in which we assemble intel from across the conference, each Rivals.com site in the Big Ten has weighed in on what could cause a calamitous outcome to the forthcoming season for each of their respective teams.

What CAN’T happen for all 14 teams across the conference if they aim to sidestep disappointment this season:

ALSO: The B1G Picture: This season will be a success if...

Ohio State’s sky-high standards mean that even a loss or two in the regular season could spell disaster for Ryan Day’s program, and the continued success of his routinely high-octane offenses will be key in avoiding that.

There’s no guarantee that the Buckeye secondary will be able to make a 180-degree turnaround in a year’s time, and with opposing pass attacks only improving in the Big Ten, Ohio State will have to put points on the board at a high volume.

That, of course, has been no issue at all as of late, but with the inexperience at quarterback, turnover at multiple spots on the interior offensive line and the loss of Trey Sermon at running back, Ohio State will still have to prove that it can resemble its usual self without a number of key cogs that it depended on in years past.

– BuckeyeGrove team writer Griffin Strom

This season will be a disaster if Indiana takes a step back.

The schedule is going to be a tough one with games at Iowa, at Michigan, at Penn State, at Maryland and at Purdue on the docket, along with what should be a Top 25 showdown against Cincinnati.

But, as Tom Allen has said, he has had a tough schedule every year he has been at the helm. If Indiana loses more than three games, this season will strongly be considered a disaster, especially depending on who the losses come against.

– TheHoosier staff writer Paul Gable

It’s too much to put it all on the shoulders of Sean Clifford, but his performance is likely to dictate quite a bit in terms of Penn State’s wins and losses this season.

And the bottom line here is that last season was an unmitigated disaster for Clifford, and anything even resembling that performance would amount to a continuing disaster for Penn State this season.

The path to wins doesn’t have to necessarily be beautiful, though given the relative ugliness of even Penn State’s four wins to end the season would make it nice for fans, but simply getting back to a trajectory in which the program is playing meaningful games in October and November will be critical.

If they can’t get out of September with at least two wins, that would be the answer to this question.

– BlueWhiteIllustrated senior editor Nate Bauer

This season will be a disaster if Tagovailoa goes down for any reason. The Terps enter the 2021 season with just two scholarship quarterbacks and one of them is a transfer coming off of ACL surgery this spring.

– TerrapinSportsReport publisher Scott Greene

This season will be a disaster if the offensive line falters. The Scarlet Knights biggest concern entering each season over the past few years has always been the offensive line.

The team just has never been big enough in the trenches to compete with the rest of the Big Ten, but Schiano and crew has done a great job adding size to that unit since his return in December of 2019.

However with a quarterback in Noah Vedral, who is still not 100% from an ankle injury suffered in 2020, bad offensive line play could make for an ugly year.

– TheKnightReport publisher Richard Schnyderite

If Michigan wins less than seven games, the season will be seen as a disaster.

There's enough talent on the roster to be competitive on a big stage, and the pressure is on this coaching staff — 'new' or not — to get this thing turned around fairly quickly.

Almost as important as the record at the end of the year will be the 'eye test,' something a poster on our message board recently summed up perfectly, reflecting a common sentiment we've seen the fan base share this offseason.

I think it all depends on how we look, too. Are we improving as the year goes on? Do we have an identity? Is our QB play acceptable and improving as the year goes on? Is the energy and intensity at the level we need? Those are all key questions for me.

– TheWolverine staff writer Clayton Sayfie

This season will be a disaster if Michigan State continues to be plagued by the inconsistency we saw a year ago during the first year of Tucker’s tenure.

The Spartans showed a year ago that they were capable of playing good football in wins over Michigan and Northwestern, but those performances were overshadowed by lack of consistency on both sides of the football.

There are too many reasons for me to list why Michigan State struggled the way it did a year ago, but there are far fewer excuses entering the 2021 season. This Michigan State team needs to show it can play winning football on a consistent basis.

– SpartanMag associate editor Paul Konyndyk

This season will be a disaster if the Wildcats don’t at least make a bowl game.

How could that happen? The offense struggles to replace Ramsey and their top four receivers from a year ago and sputters, failing to generate the chunk plays necessary to sustain drives.

The defense, with a new coordinator and several new starters in key spots, takes a step back and is unable to carry the team as it’s done the last few seasons. Those developments would kill the Cats in 2021.

– WildcatReport publisher/managing editor Louie Vaccher

This season will be a disaster if Spencer Petras doesn’t take the next step.

Petras really struggled out of the gate last year and for a good portion of the eight game season. But, he finished strong with six touchdown passes in the final three games. If Iowa’s going to take the next step then it’s going to be because Petras elevated his play.

– HawkeyeReport publisher Tom Kakert

Mertz doesn’t take the next step in his development, the defensive line doesn’t hold up, and depth at particular positions -- a common theme -- does not pan out.

For Mertz, he lit up Illinois for nearly 250 yards passing and five touchdowns in the season-opener. He was not the same after that, finishing the year completing 61.1% of his throws for 1,238 yards and nine touchdowns to five interceptions.

Part of that was definitely due to the health of his skill position groups surrounding him, but it appeared he also had some growing pains as well. I predict a significant improvement in his numbers in 2021, but if not, it could be tough sledding for the offense -- especially if the rushing attack isn’t its stereotypical self with the backfield (more on that below).

In 2018, Wisconsin saw its defensive line hit by injuries to Garrett Rand (season-ending), Isaiahh Loudermilk (missed four of 13 games) and Olive Sagapolu (missed five of 13 games). The depth was so rough UW had to convert current first-team center Kayden Lyles to end for a year, and I felt the defense as a whole -- though still good -- suffered.

This year, Henningsen and Mullens should be prime candidates for first-team reps, but can Johnson and others step up at end? Keeanu Benton, a potential breakout candidate, and Bryson Williams are excellent nose tackles, but can they also work into nickel situations where two linemen are used -- especially when a lot of teams utilize 11 personnel on a consistent basis?

I admittedly feel more confident about this group, so I’m not as worried, but still something to watch heading into fall camp.

– BadgerBlitz senior writer Jake Kocorowski

This season will be a disaster if Minnesota can’t find a second cornerback.

Coney Durr is a sixth-year senior with plenty of experience at corner and will be the unquestioned #1. Behind him, it is bare. Safeties Tyler Nubin and Jordan Howden both struggled last season, posting below average PFF grades of 49.1 and 52.6.

I spoke above about how there is a wide-open competition at the second spot and that is for a team that also struggles with safety play. Secondary is a huge question mark and will be the most important position group on the team for its 2021 success.

– TheGopherReport staff member Alex Carlson

This season will be a disaster if Purdue suffers another slow start. The schedule is set up for a possible 4-1 beginning. If that happens, the Boilermakers should cruise to a bowl.

Anything less than a 3-2 start … and confidence may sag as the schedule toughens in the back end. Even with a 3-2 start, making a bowl may be a challenge.

– GoldandBlack associate editor Tom Dienhart

This season will be a disaster if they start the year with a loss to Illinois. They cannot afford to start in the hole 0-1, especially with the schedule they have ahead.

It will be key for Nebraska to start well, as the final six games of the schedule are extremely difficult. If they can get to Oklahoma with a 3-0 record, that will put them in a good position to have the best season Frost has had at NU.

– HuskerOnline publisher Sean Callahan

In this first year under Bielema, you want to see Illinois be competitive.

It’s not so much about the final record as it is about turning the page and becoming a program that opponents will respect. Blow-out losses and an empty Memorial Stadium isn’t the way Bielema will want his second life as a Big Ten coach to begin. A two or three win season combined with poor efforts in the losses certainly won’t move the needle.

The Illini need something positive to build on.There’s also a fair chance it will become a disaster if quarterback Brandon Peters misses games. Bielema brought in former Rutgers quarterback Artur Sitkowski as a backup, but his stats are less than impressive.

– OrangeandBlueNews publisher Doug Bucshon